The Two Overlooked Strategic Risks India Can't Afford to Ignore

The New AI Security Threat Most People Are Missing

AI is no longer just chatbots that write emails. The next generation is called agentic autonomous AI. These tools can act on their own without constant human input.

Existing cyber security rules were built for old threats. They do not cover these new autonomous systems. Rogue groups can now access capabilities that used to only be available to nation states. This includes cyber attacks, misinformation campaigns, and other hybrid threats.

Experts warn that AI models can also "hallucinate" or make things up. They can also carry hidden biases from their training data. Decisions made by biased AI can cause real harm. There is also risk of algorithmic radicalization, where AI pushes users toward more extreme views.

Right now, global AI governance rules are still in their early stages. Countries are already accusing each other of stealing AI technology. Without clear global guardrails, the risk of misuse will only grow. Leading AI firms have warned that advanced AI could become the dominant source of military and economic power, if left unregulated.

Why Critical Mineral Supplies Are a National Security Issue

Clean energy, electric vehicles, semiconductors, defence manufacturing, and advanced industry all rely on critical minerals. These include lithium, cobalt, copper, graphite, and rare earth elements.

Global supply for these minerals is extremely concentrated. China processes over 90% of the world's rare earths and graphite. It refines nearly 75% of global cobalt and 70% of lithium chemicals. It is the top refiner for 19 out of 20 strategic minerals, with an average market share of 70%.

Demand for these minerals is set to skyrocket. A net zero emissions pathway could require 169 million tonnes of critical energy transition minerals by 2070. That is 51% higher than demand under current policy. Copper could face a 30% supply shortfall by 2035. Lithium will likely enter a deficit by the 2030s as demand rises.

This concentration makes mineral supply a geopolitical issue, not just a commercial one. When one country controls most processing, it can use exports as a political tool. China's 2025 rare earth export controls already raised alarms across energy, defence, and tech sectors. Major economies are now racing to build more resilient supply chains.

India's Critical Mineral Gap

India has large domestic reserves of key critical minerals. It has 44.9 million tonnes of cobalt, 163.9 million tonnes of copper, 211.6 million tonnes of graphite, and 189 million tonnes of nickel. It also has monazite deposits with rare earth oxides. Recycling could eventually meet up to a quarter of copper and graphite demand by mid-century.

But reserves alone do not equal supply security. India still lacks midstream processing and high-purity production capacity. It remains import-dependent for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Even for graphite, it relies on Chinese processing as demand scales.

Other major economies are moving fast to fix this gap. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 targets for 10% domestic extraction, 40% processing, and 25% recycling, with no more than 65% of supply from a single country. The US is building partnerships to diversify its supply chains. India is still building foundational processing capacity. Its current capacity for high-purity critical mineral products remains limited.

What Needs to Happen Next

For AI, governments need to update cyber security frameworks to cover autonomous agents. Clear guardrails are needed to reduce hallucinations and eliminate harmful bias. International cooperation is required to set global rules for AI development and use.

For critical minerals, India needs a coordinated national strategy. This should include building midstream processing capacity, setting up strategic stockpiles for key minerals, and scaling domestic R&D through industry partnerships. It should also diversify overseas supply through trusted partners, and integrate recycling into long-term supply planning. Clear, measurable milestones will help track progress.

Both risks require sustained focus and execution to avoid strategic vulnerability down the line. If you want to explore these strategic topics in more depth, or test your knowledge with custom practice questions, you can create a free Question Better account to pull from your own study sources and build personalized practice sessions.